Stop losing your best people - managing attrition risks before it’s too late

Is your best talent walking out the door?

If you’re a leader, you’ve likely asked yourself:

• Why didn’t we see the attrition risk sooner?
• Why do Managers underestimate their impact on engagement?
• Why are we always backfilling the same critical roles?

The truth is, 70% of a team’s engagement is driven by its direct Manager (Gallup). When that connection weakens, disengagement - and eventual resignation - often follow. As a result, 30.3% of employees leave due to poor leadership and 27.7% because of dissatisfaction with their manager (iHire’s 2024 Talent Retention Report).

Talent walks, and it hurts business

Losing key employees leaves more than a staffing gap. It delays projects, disrupts momentum, and puts pressure on the rest of the team.

Recovery is slow. Hiring and onboarding take months. During this time, engagement drops and others may start reconsidering their own roles.

Proactive attrition management isn’t just reactive HR work - it’s essential to business continuity. Yet most companies struggle to implement it effectively because they overlook the most immediate source of insight: the Manager.

Managers aren’t trained to act on early risk

Managers are central to retention, but often lack the skills or tools to evaluate resignation risks.

Warning signs - like withdrawal, performance dips, or reduced collaboration - are missed or ignored.

Even when concerns are noticed, managers don’t always know how to assess the seriousness or how to respond. Without a structured framework, interventions come too late.

A framework for evaluating and managing attrition risks

Here’s how to help managers detect and mitigate attrition risks before it’s too late:

1. Assess the probability and impact of resignation

Managers should regularly assess both:

• Probability: How likely is the employee to resign?
  (Scale: 1 = unlikely, 3 = very likely)
• Impact: How critical would their departure be?
  (Scale: 1 = low, 3 = high)

Risk level = Probability x Impact

• 1–2: Acceptable - monitor and assess backfill needs
• 3–4: Tolerable - take action to reduce risk
• 6–9: Unacceptable - immediate mitigation and succession planning required

2. Apply the right mitigation strategy

For high-risk cases:

• Discuss concerns during 1-on-1s
• Update status in your tool (e.g., HRIS, Google Sheets)
• Define a mitigation plan (e.g., development, mobility, mentoring)
• Escalate unacceptable risks to People Professionals and Business Leaders

Use a shared status language:
Identified → Assessed → Mitigated → Realized → Closed

3. Review and update regularly

Managers should review risk levels quarterly, or more often if issues arise.

People Professionals monitor updates and flag urgent cases.
Business Leaders and People Professionals co-review mitigation and succession plans every quarter to ensure alignment.

What People Professionals can do today

Embedding this approach takes more than tools—it requires coaching and partnership. People Professionals should:

• Train managers to assess risk and understand their role
• Support them in key conversations
• Track trends across departments
• Ensure succession plans align with business needs

Key takeaways

1. Attrition is predictable when managers know what to look for
2. Retention is a shared responsibility - People Professionals enable, managers act
3. Structured risk evaluation helps prioritize high-impact talent
4. Mitigation plans must be timely, visible, and tracked

Further Reading: [Why people stay - how work motivation affects retention]